One-in-20 chance of major sea level rise over
the next century
ABC ONLINE 29/12/2001
There is a one in 20 chance of a dramatic rise in world sea levels over the next century
due to global warming, according to a new risk assessment.
The survey by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Norwegian environmental safety
organisation Det Norske Veritas, says there is a 5 per cent chance of the giant West
Antarctic Ice Sheet disintegrating due to climate change.
Scientist David Vaughan says if that happens, sea levels would rise by one metre in the
next 100 years.
"You have to balance the likelihood against the severity of the impacts, and in this
case even a 5 per cent chance of this happening is really damn serious," he said.
Scientists have already predicted a rise in sea levels of 50 centimetres over the next
century, due to a combination of climate change and increased extraction of ground water.
Mr Vaughan says that estimate did not factor in melting Antarctic ice.
"So we might be looking at something like 1.5 metres in the next century," Mr
Vaughan said.
Mr Vaughan says the possible break-up of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which accounts for
13 per cent of ice on the frozen continent, is not related to the impact of human
industrial activity on the climate.
He says it is part of a far older process.
However, he says major world polluters cannot walk away from the problem.
"The potential impacts of a major change in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are severe -
sea level rise will be fantastically expensive for developed nations with coastal cities
and dire for poor populations in low-lying coastal areas," Mr Vaughan said. END OF REPORT
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